Welcome to Jerusalem studio.
The Middle East situation turns more and more complex and dangerous.
This is the subject me and Pekka Sartola will discuss today.
Pekka, you stopped by the parliament house -
before coming here. What did you take there? - Thank you.
I went to bring them the Finnish version of my book -
that was published 2 years ago called Myths and Facts.
I gave them 200 copies, one for each MP, -
and I hope from the bottom of my heart that they will read it -
and learn the significant things presented in the book.
If they will not read, then we have at least done all that we can.
I wish to thank everyone who was involved in this project. Thank you.
The book tells the history of what has been agreed upon -
between Israel and the Palestinian territories.
The book opens people's understanding in a new way.
Yes. Last fall we took 800 copies in English to the European Parliament, -
one for each MEP. The book was translated into English.
The Middle East situation seems to be becoming more and more dangerous.
Many times we have discussed the advance of ISIS -
and thought that at some point it will stop.
But the opposite seems to be true.
ISIS is getting more and more dangerous. Would you tell us more?
That is correct. I have to admit -
that as we discussed ISIS for the first time about a year ago, -
and as we talked about its horrible methods that still horrify us today, -
I was convinced like everyone else that the group wouldn't stand for long.
The group's methods are so brutal, cruel and inhumane -
that it lacks the support of the people.
In fact, it lacks the support of the population, the inhabitants.
But it has gained support from similar-minded radical Islamic groups.
When I received information -
about what kind of people the group consists of, -
I found that most of the members are Sunni soldiers and officers -
from Saddam Hussein's former military force.
That's why the group has succeeded in taking over areas so well.
They know the terrain, they have the armories in their use -
and they know how to use the weapons.
Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a former Major of the Iraqi special forces.
He is a highly educated strategist, and he knows his job well.
He also has a theological, religious education, -
so he advices his supporters to operate -
according to the branch of Islam that he deems right.
The group has no moral restrictions.
They have a tremendous desire to take over land, to take dominion -
and to build a future caliphate.
Their methods are such that they have succeeded in -
recruiting 25,000 people from all around the world.
They have doubled their force. Correct me if I my impression is false -
but I understand their method is such -
that every member must do as is commanded, -
or else they themselves will be shot or they lose their life some other way.
The method is so rough that it gives them a tremendous will to fight.
That is correct. ISIS is Islam in miniature -
in that you cannot leave it.
You can leave for an operation if you are committed to the group's goal.
No wonder the support is so strong there.
If we consider the recent history of Iraq, -
which began when George Bush invaded Iraq -
and took a vast force there to hold it together after Saddam Hussein, -
and when Obama pulled the forces out from there, it created a vacuum.
At that time Hussein's force consisted of Sunni soldiers and officers.
The troops persecuted the Shiite troops in the area.
After Saddam Hussein, the situation turned upside down.
The Shiites came to power and they formed a force to persecute Sunnis.
The Sunnis found a safe haven in ISIS.
They were similar-minded, and ISIS was also a financial protector.
ISIS has robbed banks and smuggled oil, and it has billions of money.
ISIS pays a thousand dollars a month even to the most insignificant soldier.
It protects the families of the soldiers if they have one wherever it may be.
ISIS guarantees its members a community -
where they are all safe and can make some money.
No wonder it has succeeded so well.
The Shiite army does not want to fight them.
The only way to combat those 50 000 soldiers is by a ground operation.
ISIS is mobile. If a bases is bombed, it sets up a new base elsewhere.
So the air strikes have been efficient, but still all experts agree -
that ISIS will not be defeated by air strikes.
Hasn't it always been a strategy in warfare -
that the battle is begun by air strikes -
and the true work is done by the ground forces.
If there are no ground forces, the result is weak.
Exactly. It was the normal procedure -
when the United States was present in Kuwait in 1991.
They took some 500,000 soldiers there.
It began with air strikes destroying Saddam's air defense and machinery -
after which the ground forces did what they pleased.
George Bush repeated the strategy in 2003.
He took the troops to Iraq, and the ground forces carried out the purging.
Now that both elements are absent, -
there are no ground troops that would fight ISIS.
Syria has its hands full with its own conflict, -
the Kurds cannot make it by themselves, Turkey will not go there, -
Jordan and the Saudis are not interested in sending ground troops, -
but both support air strikes, and the US with its aircraft carriers -
and by help of Jordanian bases is carrying out air strikes.
If we consider the strategic setting in the area in recent years, -
the Shiite Iran, Hezbollah and in the background Korea and Russia, -
they have been successful -
for these past few years in the northern front.
Iran is the world's biggest funder and organizer of terrorism.
Has this had an effect in radicalism gaining ground in the Sunni world?
You're right. It is centered around the Iraqi Sunni minority.
There are millions of them in Iraq.
Now they have found ISIS as a safe haven.
For some reason the Iraqi Shiite army ― it consist mainly of Shiites ―
is unwilling to fight ISIS.
ISIS cannot be driven out from there without the Iraqi army.
I do not know why Iraq will not fight. Iraq has all the support -
and lots of weapons from the US, but it lacks the will to fight.
They cannot be sure about the result. They assume that the US will -
come and fight all wars for them. Now the situation is not like that anymore.
What areas has ISIS captured by now -
and how has Assad's situation become more tight?
The situation has changed surprisingly fast into that direction -
that even though Assad has strong supporters, -
Iran and Russia, that both support it, -
one politically and with arms and the other militarily, -
still Assad's situation is extremely tight at the moment.
He has lost major military bases that contain weapons of mass destruction.
ISIS has attempted to get those but has not succeeded yet.
The weapons had been transported elsewhere before ISIS came.
Assad's troops have been driven to the north west coast of Syria -
to Tartus and to Latakia where there are Russian troops and safe havens.
Russia has set up some bases of its own there.
But will Russia get involved in a military ground battle against ISIS?
It remains to be seen.
Assad's situation is tight. He fights for survival.
Their small Alawite army is under threat from three sides now.
They cannot find refuge unless they fight or surrender.
The satellite groups of al-Qaeda try to recommend the Alawites -
to surrender and to join them. "If you leave Assad, you will be our brothers."
The situation is in Syria's point of view extremely critical.
An extra player in the whole situation is the al-Nusra Front -
that wants Assad to surrender to them.
And to convert to Islam. It is always accompanied by that second part.
The al-Nusra Front thinks that Alawites have forsaken Islam -
and that they are a heretic group. If they will convert back to Islam -
and forsake their former politics, then the two groups would be brothers.
On top of that there are the former Syrian rebels -
who have positioned themselves near the Golan Heights -
and the border with Jordan in the south near Israel.
To the north in the Qalamun Mountains -
on the Syrian Lebanese border are Hezbollah's forces -
that fight alongside Assad.
Against these groups -
have the al-Nusra Front and ISIS directed their strength.
In between is Damascus that for now is still controlled by Syria.
As such the situation is very interesting.
For years in these programs we have wondered -
Iran's willingness to arm Hezbollah with rockets and missiles.
The purpose was to fire them at Israel, but now Iran has said to Hezbollah: -
"Forget Israel for now. Fire those 100,000 missiles to ISIS's bases."
God has a great sense of humor. He turned the situation upside down -
so that the Islamic extreme groups are now fighting each other.
You said that Assad's living space is getting smaller and smaller.
Russia has its own interests in the area in natural gas and other matters.
Will Russia allow ISIS to take control over all of Syria?
That is ISIS's goal. I cannot believe that Putin would give in -
because it would be a tremendous defeat in authority to him -
and a tremendous financial loss.
It would bring about -
persecutions against the Alawite tribe to which Assad belongs.
Those would be cruel and perhaps even vendetta like persecutions.
Nobody wants such a loss there.
I believe someone would set up a safety zone for Assad's regime.
The UN and others would probably get involved as well.
It would be a catastrophe for everyone no matter what they think -
if Assad's regime would be left totally alone without even Russian support.
One very essential element in all of this is water, -
water supplies, and their availability.
The leaders of ISIS have thought very precisely and ingeniously -
all the strategic nodes in the whole Middle East -
that ISIS must take over. Water is one such thing.
Yes, water is an important element.
I was surprised to find out what a strategic inspiration al-Baghdadi had.
He knows the weak points. His position in Saddam's special force -
gave him much information about the vulnerable points -
that the military and the state must protect -
and now that he is on the attacking side, what points must be taken over.
The dams in the upper reaches of Euphrates and Tigris are such points.
These huge dams regulate the water supplies -
of both rivers in the lower reaches.
They regulate drinking water, agricultural and industrial water.
Taking over and controlling these dams would be a catastrophe.
If the dams would be closed, the land would dry out in a few days.
The other option would be to open the dams and drown the area in water.
The result then would also be a catastrophe.
Al-Baghdadi has turned his strategic hopes and strategic eye on the dams.
It shows genius on his part in this field.
I would like to add one more strategic element into the discussion.
It is highly probable that one of ISIS's goals is to obtain a nuclear weapon.
Such messages have been in the air for a few months -
and increasingly during the past few weeks from sources supporting ISIS.
ISIS has sent messages to specific states -
that possess nuclear weapons -
that ISIS has billions of money and wants to have nuclear warheads.
It prefers smaller warheads, suitcase bombs or a bit larger than those.
To whom were those messages sent? There are many troublemaker states.
One only needs to turn their view to North Korea to find one such state.
Pakistan is another option. It possesses nuclear warheads.
Pakistan fears that those would end up in wrong hands.
ISIS's goal, to get nuclear warheads in light of its ultimate goal -
which is to liberate Jerusalem and to destroy the Jewish State, -
is another element, alongside Iran, that causes worry to Israel.
I would like to turn attention to two countries, -
on the one hand to Russia and on the other hand Israel.
How will Russia react, since Russia and Iran are allies?
What will that be like in relation to ISIS?
Iran will quite possibly reach a nuclear weapon.
That will increase armament in the whole region -
and cause many kinds of threats as well.
I would turn my eye to the White House and ask what Obama is doing -
as he has let the situation slip into such a state.
As long as the Americans were in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq, -
such a situation could not have emerged.
Suddenly Obama stepped out of the situation and left the area -
without a police. The US has played the role of the police of the world.
Now Russia has stepped in in its place.
Russia has entered in arms supplying relations with Egypt -
that have been active for a few years, -
and now a new agreement has been made with Iran.
Russia also supports Syria.
Russia must hold this triangle together somehow.
Then ISIS came in the middle of it suddenly and swiftly.
Without stronger measures, -
ISIS will drive Syria out of existence -
and take over the land.
Unless nobody does anything, this is going to happen.
At some point ISIS will get weapons of mass destruction in its hands, -
because Syria has those at many armories.
ISIS's goal, as well as al-Qaeda's, al-Nusra's -
and the Syrian rebel group's that belong to the Muslim Brotherhood, -
their goal is to direct their measures after Syria against Israel.
Even if Hezbollah would be eliminated, -
it wouldn't remove the fact that it possesses 100,000 missiles.
I believe the situation in the region is such, that if a large scale war -
will not break out in a few years, we are headed that way none the less.
If it comes to using nuclear weapons, -
will Israel have any other choice than to use nuclear weapons itself?
No, if it comes to such weapons, Israel is superior to all others.
They have all sizes of nuclear bombs for different purposes of use.
They have those in mines, artillery shells, suitcase bombs, -
and also mega sized warheads.
I hope they will not start waging a nuclear war in that area -
because the area is so small and so densely populated -
that there would be millions of casualties.
On the other hand, the Islamic mindset is not interested in casualties.
It is interested in liberating Jerusalem which is a religious obsession to them.
In light of that they are completely unpredictable.
To get nuclear weapons you need only money.
I do not doubt that ISIS wouldn't get them.
If the spark is lit to wage a nuclear war, -
what will stop the domino effect?
It will be stopped by a counter attack.
Then the US must get involved whether it likes it or not.
It must because there are too many players in the area -
that have nuclear weapons.
For instance Pakistan and India that are already at loggerheads.
If the situation escalates into a nuclear war, which I doubt, -
but it is still an option. Damascus will be destroyed according to Isaiah 17:3.
It will be destroyed by a nuclear weapon or by an earthquake.
One or the other will turn the area and the city into ruins.
The elements are worrying that it looks like the situation is possible -
if ISIS succeeds in obtaining a nuclear weapon.
You certainly have been following what the leaders in Iran are saying.
The situation is difficult for them as well -
if ISIS takes control in Iraq, Iran -
and wherever it attempts to spread.
The situation is a large-scale fire.
Yes it is. As you mentioned, -
Iran is the world's largest funder and supporter for terrorism.
If it loses the connection through Syria to Hezbollah, -
the backing for Hezbollah will plummet.
On the other hand, Iran's negotiating position with the P5+1 is such -
that Obama has announced that the deadline will not be moved.
And Iran says that it will never allow inspectors access -
into the facilities where it knows it develops nuclear weapons.
Almost everyone agrees on this.
Iran would lose all other supporters but Russia.
And Russia has an interest in supporting Syria.
Now ISIS is trying to squeeze into this with its own goals and caliphates.
If neither of the world powers sends any ground troops there -
ISIS will found its own caliphate in the region.
What it will be like? Violence and war are foreseeable.
One of ISIS's goals is to destroy Israel and to take over Jerusalem.
How is Israel preparing itself against all these threats?
They are well aware of everything.
If I know something and get material from them, -
they surely are aware of all the details.
The Golan Heights are in the danger zone.
The Sunni rebel army of Syria has withdrawn to the Golan Heights.
It is surrounded by ISIS and by the al- Nusra Front in the east and the north.
These groups are coming closer, and ISIS is getting closer to Jordan.
One of ISIS's goals is to reach the areas of the Hashemite kingdom.
I believe Israel will have to use -
all anti-ballistic missile systems that it has.
Israel is aware of all the threats it faces.
We do know that the Bible says: -
"No weapon formed against you [Israel] shall prosper".
The Lord will look after His people.
How will it happen? Probably by worldly means -
like by various forms of warfare.
The enemies have to be destroyed. It seems inevitable.
Obama's presidential term will last for 18 more months.
We have seen that he doesn't have it in him -
to be the police of the world that keeps the world peaceful.
What new destruction can come about during those 18 months?
Exactly. At the moment the US is preparing for presidential elections.
Both democrats and the republicans, who have a better position now -
since a democrat president is bustling around or not bustling at the moment.
They need to keep the party's profile and policy clear for the future -
and in light of other rulers in the Middle East.
They seek to strengthen their alliances in the region.
Obama's weakness is apparent.
No one takes him seriously in the Middle East anymore.
This gives free hands to the players in the region.
The Americans have always been feared, that they will come and fight -
and make peace where order no longer reigns.
Now the situation is the opposite. That is why the situations have escalated.
Our time for today has come to an end.
Next time we will discuss the Palestinian question, -
the two states solution and the various pressures placed on the matter.
Thank you, Pekka. We will continue in two weeks.
Thank you, viewer. Join us again in two weeks. Bye for now!
Translation: Maija Tuukkanen