Welcome to Jerusalem Studio!
Today we will continue discussing the situation in Syria, Israel
and the whole Middle East.
While browsing through news titles I found that Syria's domestic war
has become a much wider issue involving major powers.
Lots of cruelty is going on and lots of speculations.
- Welcome Pekka! What's the situation today?
- The situation is worriesome. Nothing has changed.
Syria is the key nation. Everything seems focused around it.
Also major powers are interested in Syria's strategic position
and the direction of developments.
It will affect the world politics, most of all, Israel's situation.
- Recently the main topic has been the usage of chemical weapons
and proving it.
France and Great Britain have investigated and confirmed it.
What do you say?
- I have no doubt that chemical weapons have been used
and most likely by both sides.
During Arab Spring and uprising in Libya
the Libyan rebels sent chemical weapons also to Hamas
and Hezbollah', through whom they have alse reached al-Qaeda.
Syria has a huge advantage
with their massive arsenal of chemical and biological weapons.
Considering the multitude that has been killed there,
the role of chemical weapons in it is but minute.
It should not be the motive behind major powers stepping in.
If 100 dies of sarine gas and 100 000 from shooting,
which one has more weight?
It seems that the US' tolerance level is only rising
as Russia has taken an active role in Syria's situation.
- Could you describe the sarin gas and why is this their choice?
- Two types of gas are used - sarin and tabun.
Both can be srpead by shooting and grenades.
I am no chemist, but both are lethal in small doses,
causing loss of movement, breathing problems, boils.
One of them affects lungs more, the other attacks skin.
Geneva Convention forbids any usage of such gases.
But they are still manufactured.
- According to latest estimates more than 100 000 have died
and more than a million have fled.
The country must be quite disabled by now?
- Yes. There might be even 1,5 million refugees
found in Turkey, Iraq, Jordan and even in Syria itself.
Israel has not accepted any and probably does not want any.
Israel provides medical assistance in case of need.
Syria is in chaos after two years of battles.
Houses are in ruins;
infrastructure, roads, shcools, nothing works properly anymore.
Building it up again will take years
before the land begins to function normally again.
The mentality of blood revenge affects both sides.
It is already too great of a human tragedy.
- Fear is in the air in Israel.
S-300 missiles have been a hot topic lately.
There is a preliminary agreement from 6 years ago regarding them.
What is the situation at the moment?
- According to my sources a load of some kind of weapons
has already arrived in Damascus,
but most likely not missiles, as the arrival of those
has been planned for spring of 2014 according to Russia.
The necessary support systems, like transport vehicles and radars,
may have arrived.
A fully functional S-300 is a terrible weapon.
- Would you elaborate on that a bit?
- Its radar can simultaneously track about a dozen missiles
which will be intercepted in groups or individually.
Its speed is 2500-3000 mps. It is 3 times faster than a bullet.
Its warhead is small compared to the mass of the missile.
Its latent energy will destroy whatever it lands on.
Its range is 10-150 km.
When locked on target it will remain locked.
- So the system is not only meant for interception
but can also be used for launching missiles.
I read somewhere that it has both defensive and offensive functions.
- Of course. It depends on the target. It can also lock on naval targets.
The missile is about 10 years old. It has been develeoped since
and now has anti-tank, anti-aircraft, anti-ship functions
as well as several other variations. It is multi-functional.
Its power is in its speedy radar system
that is able to stay locked on target even if it moves.
It can even destroy cruise missiles which are difficult targets
as they can fly on low altitudes of 10-20 meters even.
One version of S-300 is able to destroy even these.
- Israel is a very small country.
When dealing with such speeds how can they defend themselves?
- Missile attack is what Israel's military fears the most.
Missile can hit the target in a few dozen seconds.
It is impossible to intercept hundreds of simultaneous missiles,
even if Israel has Patriots or Irone Dome, or David's Sling.
One S-300 system services 144 missiles.
If half of them are fired simultaneously,
only a few can be intercepted.
Neither do we know about their warheads.
Their potential traditional warhead is already powerful enough.
- Let's say they arrive next year.
Who decides whether they are used or not?
- Russia who delivers them.
Their service personnel will be observing how they are used.
It is a strategic weapon and also calls for US interferance.
If USA does not participate in Israel's defence mechanism
with its Patriots for example,
Russia would have an overwhelming advantage.
Syria could demand that Israel return Golan
or Tel Aviv will be destroyed.
This is a drastic scenario but the weapon really is powerful.
Thus an oposing front is needed.
Israel has decided to consider the S-300 system
as part of Syria's arsenal,
whether the Russians are present or not.
- It seems that a stage is prepared for a global war?
- It really seems so. It is difficult to deny it.
When considering the situation in the Middle-East,
we find the Shia Islamic axis consisting of Iran
and Iraq's 60% Shiite population, Syria's Alawites
and Lebanon's 40% Shiite population, meaning Hezbollah.
Russia has positioned itself behind them.
On the oposite side we find the Western world
and the Sunni Arab nations consisting of all the oil powers -
Saudi Ariabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the Emirates,
who support the rebels.
USA is also somewhere here.
They cannot directly interfere in Syria's domestic war,
fearing the repeating of the events in Iraq.
Another problem they have is the participation of al-Qaeda,
US long-time enemy.
It would be bizarre if USA would be fighting next to al-Qaeda
against a common enemy.
- So the reins of this situation might be in Moscow's hands.
We have Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, and these mighty weapons.
On the other side we have USA and Israel.
That is quite a confrontation, of global proportions, I would say.
- That is undeniable.
As military power in the region Israel is unbeatable.
With their back against the wall with this S-300 system,
I don't think Israel plans to be annihilated.
They have means to defend itself: nuclear weapons, missiles
and air defense systems.
Should a confrontation arise
the victor will not be the Russian bloc.
Israel will not commit national suicide
by allowing a situation
that would become to include Iran's nuclear weapons.
- USA has brought certain weapons to Jordan.
- In the beginning of June some troops and air defense radars
were brought to Jordan,
including at least a 1000 expert soldiers,
who will form a line on Jordan's border with Syria
in order to quench the potential attacks
of the rebels or the Syrian army against Jordan.
They wish to avoid attacks against Jordan
as their Muslim Brotherhood supports the rebels.
Jordan and Israel have a deal: in case of an attack against Jordan
Netanyahu has promised Israel's aid.
But Israel's interference in the war would outrage the Arab world.
In this context you cannot make a move in a small corner
considering it the best solution for the given situation.
Everything is connected.
- Major powers have usually two things in mind:
power and money.
We have heard about Israel's newly found gas fields.
With the Bible in mind,
how will the oil and energy come to play here?
- The Bible is our authority, it is good to use it as our mirror.
Reading from Ezekiel 38-39 we find a situation with Gog.
Russia is looking for prey in Israel.
In the light of the S-300 situation,
although missiles are not in the picture yet,
Putin with his KGB background is using these tactics
in order to get Israel to concede
to let Russia participate in its new gas industry.
They would, of course, pay high royalties,
but it would tie Israel to the same bloc.
This is most likely Putin's aim.
At least I would do that in his position.
GAZPROM badly needs the gas from the South
to start flowing to Europe through their pipes.
- How much can Israel afford to make major deals?
Wouldn't it complicate things with the US?
- This is a question for Netanyahu.
In my personal opinion, I do not think Israel will do it.
It would be great to get involved with a major power
that would stabilize the threat in the North.
They would no longer have to fear Turkey, Lebanon, Hezbollah, Syria
or even Iran,
when joining a bloc Russia is in charge of.
The traditional ties of Israel and the West,
and the US support would then become secondary.
This is difficult to digest for me,
although it might have crossed Putin's mind.
I believe Israel will remain apart and will sell drilling rights
to different international oil companies
exploiting its neutrality.
Their financial gain will most likely be higher that way as well.
- Let's address Iran briefly.
Is it possible that Russia would sell S-300 systems to Iran
which would allow Iran to complete its nuclear program?
- The deal was struck already four years ago
but it has not been executed.
It involved the defense shield meant for Eastern Europe.
George Bush came up with the idea
aiming to install a defense shield against Iran in Poland
which would in reality be a shield against Russia.
Then the idea of the defense shield was dropped
in exchange for Russia not selling S-300 missiles to Iran.
The agreements may still exist,
although deliveries have not been made.
If Israel declines Putin's offer
the next blackmailing tool might be the sales of S-300 to Iran.
US would most likely step in then as their interests regarding Iran
coincide with Israel's.
- The UN experts investigating Iran's nuclear issue
are pressuring major powers to oppose the completion
of Iran's nuclear program.
- That is true. IAEA chief said in TV recently
that Iran has consistently denied providing them information
about the extent of their nuclear program.
They continue with the game they have played for 10 years.
They are buying time and delaying things,
just about to concede to something, until they suddenly have the nuke.
Unfortunately this tactics works until the West is flexible about it.
- When looking at the whole picture and the countries facing Israel,
and adding the internal issue of the peace deal with Palestinians
while the Syrian situation is going on,
there's quite a lot on Netanyahu's plate.
- US State Secretary Kerry was there to speed things up
for the talks with the Palestinians.
Most likely with Obama's consent he was ready to give up
the northern part of the Dead Sea with its coastal parts
with their cosmetics factories.
For some reason USA seems to think they can determine
how Israel as a sovereign state should divide its territories.
The Palestinian issue seems to be a personal matter for Obama.
He has made promises he is unable to deliver.
Now he is trying to pressure Israel to conform to his will
in order to bring about the Palestinian State.
- We have covered the history of Israel's birth in previous shows.
I have not found that any major power
was ready to recognize Israel while securing its borders.
Do you believe it will happen some day?
- In a recently published Netanyahu's answer to Kerry
he calls them to get the Arab League to recognize Israel as a state.
Then they would be in position to negotiate.
At the moment the Arab states and the Arab League,
except for Egypt and Jordan,
200 states in total, have not recognized Israel.
They do not seem to have a negotiation partner.
Recognition of a negotiation partner is a prerequisite for any talks,
deciding about the borders can only come after that.
In my opinion US should put pressure in this direction,
but I don't think Arab states will recognize Israel
during the reign of this US president.
Jordan has no choice about it.
Egypt is about to withdraw from its peace deal with Israel
and thus stop recognizing it.
- I think Hamas' chief said somewhere
that a deal with Israel will never be stricken with money
but with weapons.
- Yes, that is their tactics.
Even though they would strike a deal they can always quote the Koran
which nullifies all deals with non-islamic entities
as they do not glorify Allah.
They are but a tactical strategy used to manipulate situations.
They refer to Mohammed's own battle experiences and practice.
- We end up with the same conclusion
the world politics understands very little about -
it is about spiritual warfare.
What do you think about it when studying these things
in the light of the Bible?
- I have repeatedly said when lecturing
that the main cause for this conflict is spiritual,
not military, political or economic.
It is about God's plans we find in the Bible
and His enemies trying to keep them from coming to pass.
And Israel is the tool and focus of it all.
In the end, it is all about spiritual warfare.
- It means that no weapons, speeches nor anything else helps,
we must go deeper than that.
- Yes. If we are talking about the final solution for peace
we must look to the Messianic 1000-year-kingdom
and Jesus' return.
Thankfully we have biblical promises that afterwards there will be peace.
- The good is coming, but much pain and tears come first.
But while we go on with our shows it seems there will be no peace.
- There's light in the end of the tunnel.
Until then we can study other prophecies in the Bible
which also predict these events.
- I would be great for our audience to pray for Israel,
for God's will to be done in these matters
with minimal human losses,
and that the growing pain and sorrow may actually diminish.
Thank you for joining us today! See you next time!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri