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Welcome to Jerusalem Studio!
Thank you for positive feedback for the program.
100% of it will go to Pekka and the Almighty God.
- Yes, thanks be to the Lord, not to us.
- Today I will rely on your expertise again
and rejoice that you have been able to publish a book this year.
We will discuss this in a different context.
You follow all our topics daily and even hourly.
- This is part of my MO.
When I am away preaching somewhere and cannot follow the news closely,
I feel already lost. At least this is how I feel.
Situations change so quickly there and must be followed closely
in order to keep up with the complicated picture there.
- This reflects the extremely volatile situation there.
Today we will discuss Syria again, Golan and things relating to it.
We will start with Golan.
We have heard that the rebels are close to Israel's border
and some things have already happened there.
Could you elaborate that a little and also, what has UN done about it?
- UN seems to be quite powerless in the area.
They have 1000 peacekeepers there who should watch the buffer zone
between Israel and Syria.
Their MO is quite powerless there. They can just observe the situation,
try to calm the parties and report any developments.
The rebels - al Qaeda and the new Yarmouk Brigades
do not care what UN does,
so they kidnapped around 20 Filipino peacekeepers.
They were held hostage for a while in order to show UN
they have nothing to do there.
The hostages were returned to Jordan unharmed.
But it caused a reaction where other UN troops took action.
Croatia called back 100 peacekeepers for example.
Many peacekeepers from different countries
have sought refuge in Israel,
as Israel is viewed the most secure country in the region.
There's fighting in Lebanon and Syria and they do not wish to go to Jordan
so they come to Israel.
This has been the main reaction among the UN troops over there.
- You mentioned the powerlessness of the UN.
Many of our viewers do not know that UN can only express its opinion
but they do not have an organisation to execute its positions.
- It is true. UN is an organ that decides things
and expresses positions on things
but they only have a power to suggest things to member states.
They can only suggest certain moves but members decide for themselves.
And that is a correct way.
When the world peace is at risk the Security Council can interfere
according to UN's Charter, and determine some sanctions
and even military measures,
but then they have to turn for help to NATO,
because UN does not have military troops of its own.
Peacekeeping has been the main MO in similar situations.
- In case of terrorist groups like al-Qaeda, no UN measures apply,
because they do not care about any rules.
- UN is very unpopular for relying on Western Christian ideology
and being influenced by the US.
And Israel, the main regional enemy of the terrorists,
is strongly connected to the US.
This dramatic triangle keeps the terrorists uninterested in UN.
They follow their own rules and believe they are right,
as they are motivated by their own religion.
- So the rebels on Syrian border took some peacekeepers hostage,
they may also have chemical weapons. What could that lead to?
- It could have serious consequences.
There are 4 countries playing a role in a few dozen square meter area -
Jordan, Syria, Lebanon and Israel.
Emotions are running high.
Al-Qaeda as an outside force has its own agenda
based on extremist Wahhabism
which pursues the ideas of Islamic world domination.
They fight against anyone that disagrees with them.
They have mass destruction and chemical weapons from Lebanon,
biological missiles and grenades and short range anti-aircraft missiles.
Hezbollah and the Syrian Army also have the same arsenal.
Should they start using them, the situation gets very critical.
The map shows the situation in the region
and a scenario of a nuclear bomb exploding in Damascus.
The ramifications of even a small explosion
affect at least half of Israel.
Radiation would affect millions of people.
The same goes for chemical weapons. Winds spread them on.
And the use of biological weapons is also dangerous in this region.
The use of chemical or mass destruction weapons
affects all the nations in the area.
- Syria is like a barrel of gunpowder as are Hezbollah and al-Qaeda.
Could you explain once more what is the difference
between the Shia, the Sunni and the al-Qaeda?
There are clear differences in their radicalism.
- They are all muslims whose religion is Islam
which is divided into Shiism and Sunnism.
20% of them follow Shiism and Sunnism is the majority religion.
There are also 10-15 sub-religions.
We must remember that Iran, the stronghold of Shiism,
is allied with Hezbollah that also follows Shiism.
According to Shiism the Sunnis are heretics.
They cannot be greeted by handshake in order to avoid contamination.
Sunnism sees the Shias as blind heretics.
Extreme Wahhabism, the religion of Osama bin Laden,
rooted in Yemen, from where bin Laden once sprang out,
which is still the main stronghold of al-Qaeda,
sees traditional Sunnism too secular and corrupted.
Their ideal is Mohammed's most radical teachings.
And Shiism is considered heretical because of Sunnism.
Saudi Arabia that has a long border with Yemen
has built a similar border fence as Israel against Palestinians.
Their aim is to avoid terrorism and smuggling of people.
Their reasons are the same as Israel's,
but noone has ever judged Saudi Arabia for it.
- Everyone can see from the world history
that this setting is one of hatred, the object of which is Israel.
Where does that stem from?
- From religious differences in the region
that was once under Turkey's Ottoman reign.
According to their teachings an area that has once belonged to Islam
must remain so forever. If unattainable for time being,
it must be pursued in every possible way.
Both Shiism and Sunnism pursue world domination,
they wish to spread Islam everywhere.
The continued existence of the small democratic Israeli State
is a hindrance to their pursuits.
It shows that perhaps they are not under the protection of mighty Allah
or perhaps he has changed his mind, or Mohammed's prophecies are wrong,
as they are unexecutable.
This is the Islamist way of thought.
- Looking at the Western world, the US has backed Israel,
but what comes to Europe, some positional changes can be seen.
- Europe is slipping towards understanding terrorist organisations
instead of seeing them from right perspective.
There is a strong move in Europe to put Hezbollah on the list
of terrorist organisations.
But some people in Europarliament do not want to judge it
as Hezbollah also has political power -
representation in Lebanon's parliament and government.
But the same person is in charge of the extreme Shiist movement's
both armed and political wing, both having the same aim.
So it seems naive to think of Hezbollah having political ties
with Israel or Europe,
while their other wing is conducting terrorist attacks.
This European mentality seems a bit hypocritical.
- You said that in case of the nuclear explosion in Damascus
the radiation could affect half of Israel.
We have been following the nuclear aspirations of Iran
and their cooperation with North-Korea.
How would you describe that situation at the moment?
- The six nuclear powers held talks with Iran in Kazakhstan,
Israel was for some reason not invited.
Some strange decisions were made.
US representative Wendy Sherman visited Israel afterwards
and briefed about their agreements with Iran.
US promised to avoid military attacks on Iran's nuclear plants
and they promised the same also on behalf of Israel.
So they announced that to Netanyahu's government.
It did not go over too smoothly. And a few other things happened.
North-Korea conducted a nuclear test most likely on behalf of Iran,
which caused an uproar in the world.
North-Koreans reacted strongly by threatening the US,
South-Korea and Japan.
This is a bizarre squirrel's wheel with many factors.
Any wrong move may launch a chain reaction
which may lead to concrete attacks and great losses.
Israel did not accept the US announcement
about Israel promising not to attack Iran.
Minister of Defense Ehud Barak visited Washington
to say that Israel is still entitled to take care of its security
and the right to stop Iran from becoming a nuclear state.
Ex chief of military intelligence Yadlin said the same in a press conference:
attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is a one-night-operation
and can delay their nuclear program at least by a few years.
- Presuming that Iran's leaders have hidden their plants
deep within the ground,
how is it possible to take care of them in one night?
- They are not going to destroy the plants as they are.
Some of the enrichment facilities are close to the surface,
but their main plant Fordo where uranium is enriched
is at least 100 meters deep and behind many rock tunnels.
Nothing but nuclear weapons could destroy that.
They can stop it from operating
by destroying their entry and exit routes,
and the power plants supplying their electricity.
Digging them out could take years. That is the most likely scenario.
A powerful shockwave may also have a similar effect.
Unfortunately it also means loss of life.
- In any case this action may delay the process by a few years.
There are several sanctions in place against Iran
that affect its living standards.
When do you think they would affect their domestic decisionmaking?
- That is Israel's main aim. They do not wish to destroy Iran
nor cause mass destruction.
They have always desired to change the leadership of the country
for one that understands that the region's countries
wish to live in peace.
Israel has a full right to live in peace
and guarantee the security of its citizens.
The sanctions have been effective - their currency is devalued,
their banking is in confusion, import-export is impared
and it is beginning to cause domestic uprisings
similar to Arab Spring, which they fear the most.
They will have presidential elections in June.
Ahmadinejad, who has been most anti-Israel,
is no longer running and is no longer popular.
One of Ayatollah Khomeini's protege's will most likely become president.
His future politics depends on Ayatollah's mood.
They have to come up with some internal changes,
in order to keep the people from going to the barricades.
There is at least 10 million people that do not support Iran's policies.
The people have to pay for the state's nuclear craze.
- Their partner North-Korea is even in worse state economically.
How long can they continue their threatening nuclear pursuits?
- North-Korea can continue as long as China lets them.
They are completely dependent on China.
They have no other external outlets.
Sanctions have hit them hard as well.
They are strangely divided - a tiny elite and the army.
Their army is 1,2 million strong and they live well,
in order to ensure their support to the government.
The people are considered but pawns and second class citizens.
They live under poverty lines.
But their army is so strong that noone dares to go against them.
Only army has weapons.
North-Korea's threats against USA seem like mosquito vs elephant,
it is completely unreal.
But they do have a nuclear weapon and they use it for scare tactics.
Also China has taken some distance from North-Korea in Security Council,
as some lines seem to be crossed.
They may also be facing an internal power struggle.
A military coup is feared, so the army has to be pampered
and given an opportunity to show off
and leave an impression of being a power player in the area.
- We have a few minutes left.
We record this program a few days before Obama's visit,
which is very important.
We know that some things are discussed behind closed doors.
What is the importance of Obama's visit
and what kind of things they might discuss?
- Obama arrives for a 3-day visit on March 20.
It is his first Israel-visit as President,
which is bizarre as US Presidents usually visit Israel early on.
Obama's relations with Netanyahu seem a bit complicated.
The announced agenda of the visit is lacking something important -
the two-state-model.
It has been deliberately excluded and the main focus is Iran.
The second is Syria and the third is bilateral relations.
Obama has tried to reassure Israel of his commitment
to keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear state.
The discussion held in Kazakhstan led to Israel's counter reaction.
They felt that their security is being sold again.
Israel let the USA know, that they want clear guarantees.
They want Obama to announce to the Knesset
that USA will not allow Iran to become a nuclear power -
the same reassurance that has been upheld by Obama's predecessor
George Bush during his presidency as well as during Obama's first.
The exclusion of the Palestinian question from the agenda
sent a message to the PA, who applied for UN observer status
in spite of US' strong opposition and its investment in Oslo 2 Accord,
which the Palestinians unilaterally violated.
We will cover this in another program.
- In four weeks we have more info on Obama's visit.
We know that the Middle East is such a complicated region,
with many criss-crossed interests.
The worse in my opinion is that the terrorists have no rules.
That is worriesome.
- This is disconcerting.
Thankfully Israel has its own security factor -
He that watches over Israel does not slumber nor sleep.
- Exactly. In this we trust
and believe that God will watch over the apple of His eye.
Thank you for joining the program!
Thanks to our viewers for spending this half-hour with us!
We will discuss these complex issues again in four weeks.
Welcome back then!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri