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Welcome to Jerusalem Studio!
We have some burning topics to discuss again with Pekka Sartola.
We have already covered Syria and the situation in the Middle East.
Today we will focus on Syria again.
In our last show it seemed that Assad's army is about to lose
and now we seem to be going in the opposite direction.
What has happened in the meantime?
- Clear signs could be seen during the whole last year
about Assad's army losing and his regime being toppled.
All international players - USA, Russia, EU, UN -,
have agreed that Assad's regime cannot continue
the blatant massacre of its own citizens
and room must be made for democracy.
But he does not want it.
Last fall everyone was convinced that Assad's regime will fall.
After presidential elections in US the situation is quite the opposite.
The military-political status seems to be moving in the direction,
where USA, whose 6th naval fleet kept the reigns on Assad, withdrew,
and Russian ships moved in instead.
That was oil to Assad's fire. He felt himself more securely
and also behaved accordingly in his notorious televised speech
that was sharply criticized in the West
as if Assad had lost all sense of reality.
- Could the withdrawal of the US 6th naval fleet
have been some sort of an election manoeuver?
- The Middle East is convinced that Obama has lost some credibility.
He has acted towards the fall of Assad's government,
even if not directly to topple it.
He wanted Assad to be fair with his own citizens.
The same reason gave birth to the whole rebel movement.
After the election win Obama has nothing to lose anymore,
he has 4 more years in power and he can do as he pleases.
Perhaps he is now showing his real colours and policy
regarding Syria's situation.
He has shifted into reverse.
- Let's look at the decisionmakers. UN should have a central role.
They have been completely powerless in this issue.
60 000 Syrians are dead and the numbers are growing.
There are hundreds of thousands of fugitives, people are suffering,
and both parties organize massacres.
It seems like nobody can do anything.
- That is true.
Although UN has given clear directives
and the Security Council has attempted to condemn Syria
and send in some NATO-led power factors
that could shift the situation in one or another direction,
things in the Security Council do not move,
as Russia and China have the veto power
and just one of them suffices to fail all condemnation attempts.
We have a stalemate.
The rebels are no angels either. Among them are folks from al-Qaeda,
mercenaries, forces and idealists from different countries
that fight for the rebels in order to topple the government.
But the army is strong, wields weapons of mass destruction,
fighter jets and tanks that are used both against rebels
as well as to kill civilians.
The situation is deadlocked.
In my opinion, it could have been avoided,
if USA had not withdrawn its naval fleet
and declared a no-fly-zone in the area,
which would have balanced the situation.
- You mentioned Obama's second term when he can do as he pleases.
Do you think he is now revealing his true colours more now
as he no longer has to pursue his former policies?
- Thankfully I can offer my personal opinions here.
In my view, Obama has definitely been hiding his real agenda
what comes to the Middle East.
He has never been too consistent in this direction anyway
with regard to any country where they've even had troops.
If that is showing his real colours
I consider it extremely regretful from the US president.
Those countries cannot rely on him much
and he has lost his credibility.
- Russia, Iran, Israel's neighbours that support Assad
are also involved.
What is happening in Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and elsewhere?
- Most alarming are the public talks
about using weapons of mass destruction.
They have been manoeuvered to strategic places.
That is an extreme move.
When Obama withdrew his troops and no longer supports the rebels
it gave Assad a strong signal and he had to take advantage of it.
He feels himself more securely now.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has received some weapons of mass destruction.
That has not been confirmed, however.
NATO member Turkey has moved Patriot batteries
to its border with Syria.
Iran reacted by sending Syria missiles
to counter the Patriot system.
China is blocking the matter in the Security Council
because of their oil interests in Iran.
There's a strong movement in Jordan in support of the rebels.
One branch of the Muslim Brotherhood has been active there for months
trying to spark a conflict between Jordan and Israel
and form a coalition between Jordan and the rebels.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt supports its fellow faction in Gaza
as well as in Jordan.
Everything is connected in this big squirrel cage.
- Let's try to expand this confusion a little bit.
When looking at Yemen, and al-Qaeda that has recently spread to Algeria,
what developments could occur here?
- Ayman al-Zawahiri has replaced bin Laden in leading al-Qaeda.
He has been inspired by the Arab Spring.
They had already infiltrated into all North-African countries -
Libya, Algeria, Morocco, Egypt.
From their bases in Sinai they smuggle weapons to Gaza.
They have a foothold in Gaza, West Bank, Jordan, Iraq
and al-Qaeda's troops are even in Syria.
Assad uses this, claiming, he wishes to keep al-Qaeda from power
and has the right to protect the Syrian people from al-Qaeda.
This is one of his many arguments.
Al-Qaeda has indeed taken root extensively in Arab countries.
Yemen has been in the limelight due to the kidnapping case of Finns,
which took place in the so-called cradle of al-Qaeda.
- These factions have Israel as their common enemy.
What kind of threats is Israel facing in this chaos?
- We already covered those earlier and they have not changed.
The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Jordan and perhaps in Syria,
and Turkey as their ally, form a troublesome axis,
which is counting on Assad's fall.
They share the same goal with the rebels.
Their next aim is to wipe out the Zionist country from the region.
Shiites that support Assad, led by Iran,
and Hezbollah in the west, have the same goals.
In addition, Assad warned his army against assassination attempts.
Should this happen or if they lose power,
in the name of Islam the army is to fire all missiles
equipped with weapons of mass destruction at Israel.
- That is a tough scenario.
Israel has been a bystander, has not fired anything anywhere,
still all the aggression is directed at them.
- It has been so already since Assad's father.
When Syria lost Golan in the 1967 War, he announced,
they want everything back, and even if they did get it,
Israel is still No. 1 on their list of countries to be destroyed.
There is no difference which faction rules in the Middle East,
they all share the same main goal - to wipe out Israel from the region,
and according to some bizarre logic, to free Jerusalem.
This situation has not changed.
- Netanyahu will most likeley form the new cabinet after elections.
What are Israel's potential steps in the near future?
- Netanyahu is a leader with a very clear profile.
He was slammed in Israel due to the Gaza events in November,
as he canceled the ground operation.
Now this decision is deemed right.
That frontier has been calmer.
But Hamas in Gaza remains a threat.
Netanyahu is ready for the option,
that Hezbollah or Syria could fire missiles at Israel.
They have raised readiness in Golan and on the border with Lebanon,
they're more prepared militarily as well as to intercept missiles.
If the Likud-Beiteinu coalition will win elections
and Netanyahu will continue as Premier
and can choose partners that support his politics,
they will continue building houses, which is perfectly legitimate,
regardless of what the world says.
They also have a clear vision regarding Iran.
Should the situation develop, they are ready to attack.
- You said that Obama has changed some decisions after elections.
Prior to the elections
he was committed to destroying Iran's nuclear plants.
Now it seems that Obama hardly wants to talk to Netanyahu.
"Love" has cooled down, so to speak.
- If there ever was any "love" to begin with.
Obama is quite an egoist. He thinks of himself highly
and does not want the Premier of a small Jewish state
teaching him how to do his job as world's most powerful leader.
However, his attitude towards Iran's nuclear program, is puzzling.
They negotiated with Iran at a lower diplomatic level
at least half a year in order to solve the issue.
When Obama remained in power,
Iran decided they do not have to give in anywhere
because they saw where Obama's Middle East policy was going.
Obama shifted into reverse and is withdrawing from everything.
The Iranian problem is unique as already George Bush stressed
during both his terms that Iran cannot be allowed to become nuclear.
This has been often repeated by Secretaries of State
Condoleezza Rice and Hillary Clinton.
Suddenly Obama found that it is better for the people
to prepare for Iran's pending nuclear test.
This was his last message a few days ago.
- In recent months it has been said that Iran is ready for nuclear tests.
Has the red line been crossed from Israel's standpoint?
- I don't think so.
Iran has approximately 40 plants involved in the nuclear program,
6 of which specialize in weapons development.
Destroying all of them at once is quite difficult for Israel alone.
They could destroy a couple perhaps
and delay the nuclear program by a few years,
but this would have unexpected consequences for the Middle East.
Counter attacks would most assuredly follow from Syria,
Lebanon, Gaza, and Israel would have to face it alone,
if USA continues to withdraw.
US air bases in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman
have been a strategic resource
that has allowed Israel to develop its possible attack plans.
Obama's views on all this are impossible to predict right now,
should Israel decide to attack alone.
- Could it happen, that as America withdraws,
the situation will develop in a different direction?
- It is possible; at least what comes to Iran
and Syria feeling themselves more securely.
As they know they are covered in the Security Council by Russia
and China, they believe legitimately, that without a nuclear attack
it is impossible to destroy their nuclear plants,
and that Israeli nuclear strike is impossible.
Israel might use nuclear weapons as a counter measure,
never for first attack.
In this context Obama's actions in the Middle East are alarming,
especially from Israel's standpoint.
- As US is turning its back to Israel and EU is against Israel
what comes to Palestine and the issue of settlements,
and gives money to Palestinians, Israel seems quite alone.
- Yes. Public opinion considers the visit of UN Secretary General
in the region where he expressed concern over Israel's plans
to build apartments to its citizens in area E-1.
The whole attitude, as if all Israel's actions in the Middle East
were illegal, is extremely alarming.
While studying one English website I found
that in many English textbooks Israel has been erased from the maps
of Middle East and been replaced with Palestine.
This is unbelievable!
The actions of the British have been dubious
since the beginning of their Mandate,
but this is new Antisemitism
that seems to be on the rise in Europe.
- This is truly alarming.
If regardless of all Assad falls, what would that lead to?
What would the Muslim Brotherhood do?
- The first great task is rebuilding Syria.
The country is in ruins.
Its infrastructure and government were based on Assad's regime,
now everything would have to be reformed.
Unfortunately this may lead to a witch hunt.
A 3,5-million-strong Alawite Islamic minority has led Syria,
holding the army, police, security and other power structures.
They would be the main target of the usual Islamic revenge.
Building up their own structures will take the rebels years.
Army is in bad shape at the moment and Israel's military is very strong.
They will begin with ideological propaganda against Israel,
but the desire to destroy continues to burn in the background.
- Golan is considered a politically sensitive area.
It is next to the Syrian border.
Construction of a security fence has been discussed in the area.
What kind of developments do you foresee there?
- Golan has been a subject of debates for decades,
at least from the 1967 War when Israel conquered it.
Syria has claimed, and international community agrees,
that if Israel would give up Golan,
Israel and Syria could enjoy peace.
Syria held Golan in 1948-1967, for 19 years.
They built their army bases there, threatening Israel
as well as the Northern Galilee.
They did not want peace with Israel when they had Golan.
Resolution No. 242 was adopted in Security Council after 1967 War,
which prescribes that Israel have recognized and secure borders.
If Syria holds Golan, it will never be secure for Israel.
The same goes for the West Bank at its narrowest section,
should it belong to the Palestinian State.
There are two different ways to view things -
Syria does not need Golan, but for Israel it is a necessity.
- When thinking that Israel is of the size of one Finnish county,
and only 15 km wide in some places,
and knowing the range of missiles that could come from any direction,
Mediterranean being the only less dangerous direction, perhaps,
the attacks could come from anywhere as enemies are everywhere.
- Unfortunately that is the case. Israel is surrounded by enemies
already since their independence, and even from before.
In that sense, their only functional policy
is to take care of themselves alone. They can rely on no outside force,
not on USA nor on anyone else.
They must have a strong military in order to secure their existence.
That is why they need a top-notch army
and keep it in constant battle readiness.
- In the end, their security still depends on God, doesn't it?
- I was already expecting that. Of course!
Without God's presence and guidance they would still be dispersed.
God revealed through prophecies about Israel's return to their land
where they can reside forever. That is what we must rely on.
The more Israeli government relies on that,
the safer hands they are in.
- We must pray for Israel
that God would be able to influence the decisionmakers -
ministers, the president as well as other key people.
Thank you for helping to cover this topic that smells of gunpowder;
anything could happen at any moment.
- Thanks for being with us!
Welcome back in four weeks!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri