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Welcome to Jerusalem Studio!
My expert guest today is once again Pekka Sartola,
who has covered Middle East issues also before.
Last time we talked with Pekka about the war of Gog and its context.
That awaits us only in the middle of Tribulation
and perhaps seems far away for now. The Lord alone knows the date for it.
Now we will dive into today and talk about the events in Syria,
Israel, Lebanon and the whole Middle East,
as they are all connected.
We have heard about Syria for a year and half now.
Their situation is described as domestic war
which seemed small at first but has escalated.
How is it possible that such a blatant massacre has evolved
and no can do anything about it.
- There are several reasons.
We must go back in time a little, into 1970,
when Hafez al-Assad, father of the current president Bashar al-Assad,
came to power through a bloodless military coup.
Hafez al-Assad represented a small islamic group called Alawites,
which forms about 3,5% of Syrian population.
Regardless, they took complete power, filled key positions with their people
and at the same time started a so-called ethnic cleansing;
in the city of Hama among others,
which was then the main stronghold of Syria's main religion, Sunnism.
More than 20 000 people were killed during a blatant massacre;
the Sunnis were also turned into second grade citizens.
As the Arab Spring has evolved, this produced a counter-reaction.
There are around 80% of Sunnis in Syria.
As Arab Spring has been the main flagship of Sunnism
both in Libya and Egypt, attempting it also in Jordan,
and is currently in process in Syria, we can talk about a religious war
which seeks to restore conditions from before Hafez al-Assad's coup.
- How is it possible that neither UN nor any other body
can decide to contain this?
- Syria has powerful supporters. The mightiest of them in the West
is Russia that has sold them weapons and technology,
unfortunately also lots of weapons of mass destruction
in the form of licenses through third countries.
Russia wishes to maintain a bridgehead position in Middle East.
They have two navy bases in Latakia and Tartus.
Russia has strong ties with Syria
and its biggest supporter in the Middle East, Iran.
Everything is intertwined in this bizarre squirrel wheel.
One party cannot be dissolved without some other factor coming up.
For example, China, Iraqi Shiites and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
All these things form a bigger whole.
On the map we can see the ethnic division in Syria.
The largest, yellow part, marks the Sunnis,
the Alawite minority only covers the coast and Damascus area.
The rest are Kurds, Druse, and Christians.
The background setting of Arab Spring is the restoration of that situation.
They wish to turn Arab Spring into a religious war.
Recently even Finnish Foreign Ministry used that term for the first time
when talking about religion as the key factor in the Middle East.
- You refer a lot to the conflict between Sunnis and Shias.
Where did that come from? How were Sunnism and Shiism born?
- We must return to the 17th and 18th century
when Sunnism became a state religion after Mohammed.
They prioritize Sunnism or the teachings of Mohammed.
But Shiism is tied to the followers of Mohammed's son-in-law Ali.
The general term of Shiism is Shiat Ali which centers around Imam,
i.e. dictatorship.
The ideology of Sunnism, however, is based on teaching.
- In other words, it is about religious differences of opinion.
- Yes. It is a religious division. They also have common denominators.
Both Alawites and Shiites expect the Islamic messiah or Mahdi
who is to deliver and save the whole world.
Sunnism does not focus on Mahdi but wishes to found a caliphate
or rule the world through an Islamic caliph.
- Thus the context is religious.
- Yes. That is why it bothers me that the West does not use 'religion'
at the negotiations, where Israel is also a participant.
It is swept under the carpet, although in all these countries,
religion is a strong motivator both in domestic and foreign policy.
- So religious mentality prevails in the Middle East
but major powers around it only see power
and economic-political interests involved.
- Exactly. Religion is allegedly not as important in the Christian West
as it is in Islamic countries where muslims practice their faith
much more sincerely than Christians.
Whether it is right or wrong, they are much more sincere in it.
Many Western leaders also call themselves Christians.
George Bush, for example, waved his Bible while declaring
that Holy Land must be divided. The Bible says nothing of it.
They turn their backs on Christianity and the Bible
and take a political approach, focusing also on oil trade etc.
- How do oil and other economic ties
affect the power relations in the Middle East?
- They have a decisive role.
Middle East countries weild great power in the field of energy.
Iran is the greatest, followed by Saudi Arabia.
USA has ties with Saudi Arabia.
They have ARAMCO, a joint venture that produces and refines Saudi oil.
Iran sells crude oil to China that can affect UN's Security Council
preventing the adoption of sanctions against Iran.
Russia, which receives something both from Iran and Syria,
is in the same boat and wishes to avoid any conflicts
that could affect their interests.
- Thus Syria and their current problem
cannot be separated from this whole picture?
- No. We must also consider the situation of Assad's clan.
When Assad senior came to power, Golan had already been lost,
Israel had taken it back.
He began to campaign for the idea that Israel must give Golan to Syria.
Referring to this demand he said in 1970-ies:
"Even if we got from Israel everything we wanted through talks,
it does not do away with the fact that Israel still holds the 1st place
on the list of countries to be destroyed."
Everything is connected.
Also Hezbollah that rules in Lebanon with the help of Syria and Iran
is devoted to the same Shiite goals.
- How are Lebanon and Hezbollah connected to the Syrian conflict?
- Hezbollah's main supporter Iran sends them weapons, money
and military advisors, and all this through Syria.
Israel and others have managed to stop weapons shipments by sea.
Thus Syria is the best way for Iran to transport aid to Hezbollah
who shares the goal of destroying Israel.
During the so-called Hezbollah war in 2006, they had 12 000 missiles
of which they fired 4000 per month towards Israel.
Then UN observers were brought in who had to prevent the rearmament.
That has not worked very well.
According to different sources, they have 50 - 60 000 missiles now,
all aiming at Israel.
UN is active in the region but its hands are tied.
Syria is active and transports to Hezbollah everything it needs.
- We mentioned weapons of mass destruction.
How do you and others, for example Israel, observe the possible events?
- The situation has to be observed,
since using such weapons in a tiny land would be catastrophic.
Even Russia has condemned this possibility.
But the current Syrian president announced already several months ago
that should anyone attack them and try to interfere with their affairs
he will fire missiles at Tel Aviv.
Even if Turkey should attack them, they would still fire at Israel.
They consider Israel the root of all evil in Middle East.
Weapons of mass destruction, incl chemical and biological weapons,
have partly been brought out, which caused international reactions.
They were condemned, but we must remember
that it is only an hour or two from Damascus to Lebanon.
They can wash their hands by sending their weapons to Hezbollah.
They have some daredevils there who would not hesitate to use them.
Therefore Israel is watching and ready to destroy the convoys
when they begin to move.
- Lets go forward in time and presume that power goes to rebels in Syria.
What kind of a situation could develop then in Middle East?
- One dictatorship replaces another.
Power changes in Arab countries are usually always violent.
After 2nd WW there have been around 40 coup's in Arab countries,
at least 90% of them violent.
Should the Muslim Brotherhood which finances Syria's Sunni rebels
come to power, they will form the cabinet and begin to rebuild.
But the main goal which also stands in their constitution is the same.
Also Hamas has a similar constitution: both aim to destroy Israel.
As the situation stabilizes the same constitution will also
be adopted in Syria. Thus the threat on Israel remains,
whether Syria is ruled by Assad or the Muslim brotherhood.
- Also the US is supporting rebels in some extent.
How could develop the relations between USA and the Brotherhood?
- The stronghold of the Brotherhood is at the moment in Egypt
which is extremely dependent on USA's military and economic aid,
reaching over 2 billion USD a year.
They are also dependent on tourism and the Suez Canal.
These are the three pillars of Egypt's national product.
Brotherhood's president Mohammed Morsi
has retracted some strong statements
regarding peace treaty with Israel. He is afraid to lose the US' aid.
As statements towards Israel have been positive,
USA has agreed to help the rebels to throw Assad's clan from power.
Of course this is done via CIA and other organisations
not directly through the administration.
Everything is connected.
There is no single problem the solving of which would calm the situation.
- When following the events, one of our main sources is the Bible.
What can be found in the Bible
that could reflect some light also on the given situation?
- The Bible has revealed quite clearly some things also relating to Syria.
The picture is not very comforting.
God has committed Himself to Israel and protecting His people.
They are the apple of His eye and He is dedicated to His promises
and fulfilling them one day.
Lets look at some of the prophecies.
Isaiah 10:24-25, which is yet to be fulfilled.
"Therefore thus saith the Lord God of hosts,
O my people that dwellest in Zion, be not afraid of the Assyrian:
he shall smite thee with a rod, and shall lift up his staff against thee,
after the manner of Egypt.
For yet a very little while, and the indignation shall cease,
and mine anger in their destruction."
Another more powerful and specific prophecy by Isaiah
is chapter 17:1-3 - The burden on Damascus: "Behold,
Damascus will cease from being a city and it will be a ruinous heap."
It has not yet happened in the known history,
wherefore we can assume that is yet to come.
Jeremiah 49:24, 27 - "Damascus has become feeble,
she turned to flee, and panic seized her;
anguish and sorrows have taken hold of her, as of a woman in labor.
And I will kindle a fire in the wall of Damascus."
Amos 1:3-5 - Thus says the Lord:
For three transgressions of Damascus, and for four,
I will not revoke the punishment ... I will break the gate-bar of Damascus
- Exactly. These are quite harsh words.
- Yes. We must take them seriously. We are not trying to scare anyone,
but we declare what the Lord has revealed to us in His Word.
- You mentioned China, Russia and the US.
Their governments do not base their decisions on the Word of God.
They have no fear of God.
In a situation where none of them relies on God,
don't they all stand to lose?
- Yes they will lose.
Western institutional Christianity could also be added to this group.
Very little is compared with the mirror of the Word.
A few decades ago during Winter War even our president prayed
and we relied on things we knew help comes from.
Now they have turned their backs towards God.
Economic and military aspects, politics and oil
have been brought to the forefront.
Koran and the teachings of Islam are taken much more seriously
today in the West than the revelations of God.
- Even the Bible exhorts us not to fear.
But is not everybody afraid at the mention of these things?
- Yes. People should take the End Time events more seriously.
All these prophecies are related the End Times.
They are irreversible revelations of God that will come to pass.
Current state of affairs is moving fast towards their realization.
I dare not predict their dates. God alone knows the schedule.
We read from the Bible what happens; God knows when it will happen.
Renouncing the authority of His Word has also been predicted in the Bible.
- I have understood that from Israel's perspective
the most important topic is Iran as in some sense
the triggering of this explosion is in their hands.
- That's correct. I explored the media outlets today.
Iran's spiritual leader Ali Khamenei told the army leadership
to get ready for the war, which is only a matter of weeks.
These claims are of course based on his assumptions.
But also they have intelligence data on what the West thinks and plans,
when do the US elections come to play etc.
If the attack on Iran is inevitable, in my opinion it should be done
before the US presidential elections campaign in October.
Israel has announced that October is their limit; the opportunity is lost,
as after that time Iran is basicly becoming a nuclear state.
This must be prevented, and USA has promised to do that.
- Talking about nuclear weapons indicates that stakes are very high.
- Yes. Regarding the psychological and strategic importance
of nuclear weapons in the Middle East -
nuclear weapons in the hands of Iran whose religious fanatical mentality
stems from a world differing from actual reality,
creates fear. It must be stopped.
Iran is a massive country, rich in natural and other resources;
they have a vast army, and their goal is to spread the Shiite hegemony
across the Gulf, i.e. to Kuweit, Qatar and Saudi Arabia,
and thus strengthen their foothold.
Nuclear weapon is a strategic and scary weapon
also from the standpoint of other religions.
- In relation to all this,
the situation of Christians has deteriorated in these countries.
- Yes. The Coptic Christians, for example, are persecuted in Egypt.
No one has interfered much, although Egypt's current president
tries to keep the developments under control a little.
Christians are persecuted in Iran and Iraq,
not to mention Hamas in Gaza.
It is not only problematic in the Middle East countries.
Severe persecutions have occurred also in India
where Hinduism and Islam have a strong influence.
- Our time is almost up.
I believe that our audience should pray for these things,
that God would lead everything and nothing would happen
that would rob people of their faith.
First of all we should pray for those that suffer in these countries,
as prayer is powerful.
- That is true. We have a great and mighty God.
What He has revealed in His Word will come to pass.
In the end, on Heavens' horizon, awaits the eternal peace
on which also we will set our gaze.
- Thank you for discussing these relevant issues with us.
In four weeks time we will continue with new topics.
Thanks for being with us!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri