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Welcome to our Jerusalem studio!
We will continue where we left off four weeks ago.
We were in a very militant mood,
creating scenarios for possible future developments in Middle-East.
We will continue on the same topic, either towards war or peace.
You have probably noticed in media that rocket fire from Gaza
to southern Israel continues.
It has been quite intense already for several years,
and it only seems to intensify by days and weeks.
It has encouraged groups to continue their attempts to harm Israel.
Behind them is, of course, Hamas, that is in control of the Gaza Strip,
although they try to blame Islamic Jihad instead,
terrorist organization financed and supported by Iran.
However, it is very unlikely that nothing goes on in Gaza
without the knowledge or approval of Hamas.
375 rockets were fired to Israel last year.
In addition to mortars, bombs and assassination attempts.
More than 160 rockets were fired into Israel
during the first 3 months this year.
As a rule, Israel has had to react to the attacks.
Israeli army is under orders to protect the citizens
and thus they must launch their "retaliation attacks".
It may not be the best term as one side initiates the attack
in an attempt to destroy Israeli citizens,
and Israel tries to prevent new attacks
by destroying launching platforms, bunkers and weapons warehouses.
Their missile defense system Iron Dome is very successful.
The new system has been tried in real life circumstances.
Iron Dome has managed to destroy 80% of the rockets fired from Gaza.
This is not just "managing".
Many rockets fired at Israel are cheap home-made devices
that do not require a large launching platform.
Israel, however, must develop a missile defense system
to detect the rocket and launch a counter missile
to intercept it, which is much more expensive.
Lets say that one Gaza-made rocket costs 1000 euros,
Israel must invest dozens of times the amount
to destroy the device.
Hamas is known to possess over 10 000 of such rockets
which forces Israel to develop new missile defence batteries
that devour immense resources.
Thus they try to attack Israel's defense ability
also through economy which is used to invest in defense.
Until now both parties have been quite successful -
one party fires missiles, the other destroys them.
Israel's defense ability has prevented Hamas and Islamic Jihad
from reaching their desired goal.
Iron Dome missile defense batteries are built and deployed to more cities
also on Israel's northern border.
How is all this possible? Why does not anyone intervene?
International organizations should already take notice
of the timing of the conflicts and the unchanging results -
one party fires a missile, the other destroys it;
one aims to destroy people, the other tries to prevent it.
But such is the politics in Middle-East where different organizations
do not seek peaceful co-existence but aim to destroy the Jewish State
by whatever means and intervals.
The fact that they will not succeed does not stop them
from attempting it again and again.
On the backgroun of all this is Iran
which we will discuss shortly.
Also Syria plays a key role in the developments of Middle East.
A bloody domestic war is being waged in Syria already for a second year.
Government's forces have been brutal and inhumane
which has been condemned by the international community.
But they could not have done it without the help of two major powers,
Russia and China, both on the political frontier
in the Security Council as well as in the form of arms and aid.
It seems as though Syrian government will come out of its first uprising
as a winner, if one can say so in a situation where they have killed
more than 10 000 and wounded scores more of their own citizens,
destroyed the infrastructure, homes and roads
and have forced people to flee.
If one can emerge a victor in the midst of brutal measures
against one's own citizens,
we could say it is most likely Assad and his clan.
Their help has made it possible for Islamic Jihad to operate in Gaza.
On the map I have circled the regimes of Shia Islam -
Iran; Iraq in its west has 60% shia population,
followed by their ally Syria; Lebanon is controlled by Hezbollah
which gathers more and more strength by Assad remaining in power.
All these have delivered missiles to Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza
which by their charters aim to destroy the Jewish state
not co-exist peacefully side by side.
These conditions have prevailed in Middle-East for past few decades,
so there is nothing new under the sun.
Israel must find ways to protect and guarantee the safety,
welfare and life of its citizens.
Around a million people live under the threat of the rocket fire
emanating from Gaza as rockets develop
being able to fly further and becoming more powerful.
This poses great challenges to the Israeli Defence Forces.
The current Syrian president Assad and his government remaining in power
adds strength also to their distant southern supporter Iran.
Recently they have been under the spotlight
of international media due to their nuclear aspirations.
They have purposefully stalled different negotiations
and hindered IAEA inspectors' visits. There is nothing new here either.
They have been doing this already since 2003
and it seems to work very well in case of Western political model.
The West always wants to negotiate which is wonderful,
if it would only yield results.
But if negotiations are only used to buy time
so that Iran can develop their own nuclear weapons,
which would provide them power to exert more pressure,
then Israel's concern is more understandable.
The international community has tried financial sanctions.
Iran avoids them with the help of its allies
and is still able to sell oil.
Import of goods has become exceedingly hindered
but in return Iran threatened to close the Hormuz Strait,
the main oil route, should the sanctions become too harsh.
Sanctions are already in place and new ones are to take effect.
EU's oil import embargo will come to effect in June.
This is not too big of a problem for Iran,
they can always sell oil to China that buys everything
Iran can deliver.
Also USA and Israel have had to increase military pressure on Iran.
They have organized joint exercises on the Mediterranean
with the participation also of UK. The message to Iran is clear:
Take notice! We are preparing for the possible attack against you.
Russia, however, called the military attack a disaster
which would only lead to a bigger war.
Israel is of the following position: If we attack Iran, a war is ignited;
if we do not attack and Iran acquires nuclear weapons,
also then a war is ignited.
The question is not whether there will be a war but when.
It is more profitable for Israel to attack Iran
before they have developed their nuclear capabilities.
Iran, of course, claims not to aspire nuclear weapons
as their religion prohibits it.
Koran has no such guidelines, neither does Sunni Islam
prohibit nuclear weapons. This is a complete fabrication.
Let's see what will happen if Israel must attack Iran.
They are capable of launching the air attack also alone.
The arrows point to the air routes to Iran;
the distance between them is about 1500-2000 km
which adds military pressure.
Israel has a few hundred F-15 and F-16 fighter jets
to carry out the attack.
Flight routs must be chosen as direct as possible;
they would most likely go over Iraqi and Saudi air spaces
or would go around Syria in the north or from Jordan over Northern Iraq.
The problem is the high fuel consumption of the fighters.
They can fly without refueling around 1500 km, or till Iran,
drop their bombs but not be able to return.
Israel must refuel in the air which is technically possible
and could be done with the help of the US.
Another option is to use Jericho 2 missiles
that are capable of reaching Iran, or submarines in the Sea of Oman.
Submarines carry missiles that can reach
all the corners of Iran if necessary.
Hopefully the military option will not become necessary,
the sanction will have the desired effect,
Iran will allow IAEA inspectors in and the war is avoided.
However, Israel has declared, that they cannot afford,
and neither can USA, a nuclear Iran.
The Stuxnet computer virus has resurfaced recently as well.
Duqu, an interim virus was developed,
which will directly hinder Iran's uranium enrichment activities.
It is quite likely that the virus will infect Iran's nuclear programs
and the military action is prevented.
Should Christians be concerned over all this?
We must remember that our God is in control
and holds all the power in heaven and earth.
Let us remember His words in Isaiah 54:17
that no weapon formed against Israel will prevail.
I am personally comforted by Psalm 121:4 -
"Behold, he who keeps Israel will neither slumber nor sleep."
Next time we will continue perhaps in a more peaceful atmosphere.
That's all for today. Stay with us!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri