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Good evening from Jerusalem Studio!
We live in interesting times.
Especially the developments in the Middle East
force us to ask whether we are on the verge of a new war
or will peace prevail.
First we will examine the movements of the so-called Arab Spring
in different Islamic countries, Northern Africa and Iran
as well as in the Arab countries surrounding Israel.
Western countries introduced it first as The Facebook Revolution,
a name that had not much to do with the whole picture.
Neither have Arab countries much to do with democratic pursuits
as above-mentioned Arab countries have never seen the rule
of a democratic regime,
at least not as the West knows it.
The movement began in Tunesia, spread to Bahrain, visited Yemen,
moved on to Jordan, Libya, Egypt
and is presently culminating in Syria.
The whole picture depends on the end results in Syria.
Their domestic war has been going on almost for a year.
No solution is in sight as some major powers,
namely Russia and China, support Syria's current regime.
They also support Iran who is Syria's main economic and arms sponsor,
and from where it also reaches to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Regimes have already been changed in Tunesia, and very violently in Libya;
in Egypt, president Hosni Mubarak who had ruled for 30 years,
had to resign.
His fate is still unclear. He has suffered long from cancer
but is facing court trials after indictment for many crimes
which may lead to death penalty.
Situation in Syria is interesting.
Only after its outcome will we see the whole picture in the Middle East.
Egypt held its first elections.
The Muslim Brotherhood won over 50% of the seats in the parliament
and approximately 25% went to the Salafi party Al-Nour.
Egyptian legislation will be formulated
with the 75% support of radical Islam.
The military administration still holds the power
and is reluctant to give it up, typical of Arabic countries
where the generals pull the strings when the ruling regime collapses.
Egypt's economy is in crises. It is extremely dependent on tourism
transit of the Suez Canal and the support of the West and US.
USA has has promised to end their economic aid to Egypt
if Brotherhood begins to implement its ideology regarding Israel.
This has not swayed the radicals of the country.
They have detonated 13-14 times Egypt's gas pipe
that delivers gas to Israel and Jordan.
The same gas is used by Egyptians in El-Arish and Palestinians in Gaza.
Jordanian religious groups are not against
as their goal is to prevent Egypt's natural resources
being used by Israel.
The goals of the Muslim Brotherhood are more far-reaching.
They are not interested in ruling just Egypt.
The vision of the group that has spread into 70 countries
and wields great influence in Syria, Jordan, Palestinian territories,
Libya and Tunesia, is far greater than Egypt
and they are moving full-speed toward implementing it.
In case Syria's regime falls, the factors impacting Israel
as well as the Middle East will greatly change.
Turkey, which has remained quite impartial during past decades
and by constitution is a secular Islamic country,
has lately begun to move, especially under Premier Erdogan,
towards more radical Islam. At the same time
its relations with Israel that used to be in quite good shape
have begun to deteriorate.
As the result we have seen flotilla incidents
and sanctions imposed on Israel by Turkey.
Syrian rebels are supported by the Muslim Brotherhood
as well as other Sunni countries, especially Saudi Arabia,
and other Gulf region countries that prefer to see Assad fall.
The potential new regime would create the following axis -
Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas as its proxy in Gaza;
the coup was also attempted in Jordan but the King just replaced
the governement, and the movement continues to Syria.
If the 60% Sunni majority comes to power in Syria,
the axis will spread further North where Turkey's ties
with the Brotherhood are increasingly closer.
Looking at things from Israel's perspective
we must remember the goals of Sunni Islam and the Brotherhood.
They have clearly and repeatedly declared through their leaders
that they intend to revise the peace agreement with Israel
which literally means anulling it, which in turn implies a new war.
Lets presume Assad remains in power. Again we have an interesting situation.
Based on economic interests both China and Russia
support Assad's regime.
On the background we see Iran, the troublemaker of the Gulf region
that is currently developing nuclear weapons.
More on this in our future programs.
If Iran manages to maintain ties with the Assad regime, the new axis
will be dominated by Shia Islam which is also prevalent in Iran.
60% of its supporters come from Iraq,
the former regime of Saddam Hussein.
The Alawite minority currently ruling in Syria
that belongs neither under Sunni nor Shia Islam
gravitates strongly towards Iran.
From here the axis moves to Lebanon
dominated by Hezbollah
and where 40% of the population is Shia Muslims.
This power axis would be able to control the vast oil resources
which is their economic goal. Their religious goal is also clear -
wiping off the Jewish state from the world map.
Situation is looking grim for the Jewish State
which ever group prevails in the Middle East.
At one point they will attempt to annihilate the Jewish State.
Iranian leadership has been very clear and open about it.
President Ahmadinejad suffered a painful defeat at the elections -
his party's support fell from 40% to 25%.
The scales are leaning strongly towards the radical religious party
led by the Supreme Religious Leader Imam Ali Khamenei
who made several statements during his election campaign
in February.
His foreign political goals are very meaningful:
"Kill all Jews!" and "The Middle East must be freed of the Zionist cancer."
His strategy adviser Alireza Forghani wrote in his blog:
"Iran is fed up with the constant threats of the Zionist State
to attack our nuclear facilities."
Thus they feel justified to attack Israel first.
They need but 9 minutes to annihilate Israel.
Such were the sentiments at Iran's election campaign.
The situation looks grim from Israel's perspective.
Although they are used to it, stressing of the above-mentioned
elements in election statements force one to focus on security.
In the light of such statements also Israel feels justified to act,
even with a military strike.
However, Iran's goals are more far-reaching,
as are those of the whole Muslim world,
whether Sunni or Shia.
Their distant dream goal is to create a Caliphate
consisting of all the Middle East countries
which would then subject under Islam all the Western countries.
The first obstacle to this is little democratic Israel
that has not agreed to give up democracy
and functions extremely well.
The first goal of Iran and other Middle-Eastern states
in spreading the Caliphate and Islam is to conquer Israel.
Whether it is ruled by Palestine or some other Islamic group,
the main goal is to rid the region of a non-Muslim Jewish State.
This is Iran's long-term goal.
At the same time they wish to control
region's vast oil routes and resources.
Iran already controls the Strait of Hormuz,
oil route connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
Iran has also signed a contract with Yemen
to rent a small island in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait
that connects the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.
Thus they could control two of the world's largest oil routes.
60% of Yemen's population consists of Shia Muslims
who have strong religious ties with Iran.
Middle Eastern and the other states of the Gulf region
consider Iran the greatest threat to their security,
not Israel.
The religious threat emanating from Iran
is mainly aimed at Sunni population which pertains to Kuweit, Bahrain,
Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the Emirates and also Oman.
15-20% of the Saudi population is Shiites
who are constantly discriminated. Iran wants to change this.
The situation in the Middle East is extremely complicated.
We have also observed the developments in the US
where the presidential elections have their say
in whether Israel attacks Iran alone or will the US join them.
Answers to such big questions do not fall from the sky.
Much depends on whether Iran's new government
will resort to tactics again and allow IAEA representatives in
aiming to win time
and perhaps prevent Israel's potential attack.
Israel, however, is capable to deal with the Iranian problem,
if need be also alone. Iran is aware of that as well.
Thus the tactical games - they try to go along with diplomacy
and sanctions which would give them time
to develop nuclear weapons.
More on these topics when I return to Jerusalem Studio.
Until then, stay with us! Shalom!
Translation: Monika Jaaguri